Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 75545.170777 79787.271828 84031.448834 88593.286953 93354.796997 98175.050418 103420.566395
2026-02-08 68710.561944 75177.074020 81828.949430 89173.603841 97046.377403 105222.555634 114346.302684
2026-02-15 63383.684547 71328.973551 79683.901074 89105.547529 99415.107775 110333.953603 122752.839182
2026-02-22 60160.003172 69302.942990 79093.774681 90327.040723 102826.589804 116275.547059 131807.083335
2026-03-01 57289.883455 67371.332137 78340.988040 91117.649468 105542.101609 121274.144385 139680.242683
2026-03-08 54313.594338 65093.666026 76996.372953 91051.011894 107127.528649 124876.451625 145885.099692
2026-03-15 51964.502678 63369.410957 76131.354260 91389.079220 109049.279371 128761.052027 152336.471973
2026-03-22 50596.419900 62676.855829 76358.294523 92898.485055 112245.777153 134051.051004 160370.322480
2026-03-29 49135.823083 61783.593297 76272.039926 93973.032811 114884.099332 138666.622310 167618.568489
2026-04-05 47619.046673 60741.395172 75938.717898 94692.754633 117056.830854 142710.797653 174192.841001
2026-04-12 45820.109616 59277.830317 75031.719081 94663.874738 118289.933103 145617.508154 179414.451651
2026-04-19 44275.380202 58056.733918 74355.157852 94855.289933 119739.528328 148747.999653 184885.391950
2026-04-26 42621.836081 56659.213101 73433.203273 94730.000559 120806.202538 151442.686772 189885.852056
2026-05-03 41452.402484 55820.975615 73158.759430 95365.279950 122775.990902 155215.151193 196194.643216
2026-05-10 40013.159485 54588.837315 72349.554015 95298.394757 123854.614482 157894.268170 201182.690442
2026-05-17 39314.535203 54268.163672 72650.379338 96589.622585 126593.061387 162587.997708 208633.625565
2026-05-24 38448.213356 53696.705803 72606.216559 97424.805352 128752.042215 166573.438564 215236.621258
2026-05-31 37218.913800 52611.238283 71871.984850 97354.490771 129754.178416 169123.176662 220076.776205
2026-06-07 36246.112383 51828.510271 71494.809962 97711.504138 131273.769711 172303.251208 225700.045911
2026-06-14 35863.823502 51810.040021 72089.398111 99305.286409 134358.229234 177439.444357 233779.302615
2026-06-21 35307.732799 51537.682659 72337.067450 100439.742090 136855.118990 181850.373045 240979.048674
2026-06-28 34623.327521 51068.870307 72308.015784 101199.516746 138864.783115 185652.745271 247434.167227
2026-07-05 33648.449537 50175.526554 71692.748268 101169.030824 139839.078777 188140.289480 252237.733084